ABN AMRO Investment Solutions
In 2025, the US is expected to maintain solid economic growth, driven by rising productivity, strong consumer spending, and easing core inflation, despite uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies.
Allspring Global Investments
US growth will likely stabilize in 2025 as the effects of lower interest rates make their way through the economy. Lower mortgage rates and robust real earnings should underpin a growth rate of 2–3%. Additional fiscal stimulus from a Republican sweep will likely boost economic growth further. Economic weakness internationally probably won’t meaningfully affect the US.
Amundi Investment Institute
We are in an unconventional economic cycle phase, characterized by a positive outlook alongside anomalies like market concentration and excessive debt levels. While global macro liquidity supports riskier assets, growing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions highlight the need for greater diversification.
Apollo Global Management
The outlook for the US economy remains strong with no signs of a major slowdown going into 2025. We continue to see interest rates staying higher for longer on a relative basis, regardless of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary easing campaign.
AXA Investment Managers
US President-elect Donald Trump’s radical policy agenda has created some financial market uncertainty, in terms of the outlook for investment returns. Nevertheless, we believe the central macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for bonds and equities. Growth, stable inflation and lower interest rates should support markets.
Bank of America
BofA economists and strategists forecast “goldilocks” for the global economy in ’25 (3.25% GDP growth, 2.5% inflation), another year of monetary easing and big budget deficits, a weaker US dollar (down 2-3% by end-25), a big drop in oil prices (-20%), gold prices hitting $3,000 per ounce.
Barclays Private Bank
Some of the returns initially expected to materialize in 2025 may have already occurred. In this context, and with a global economy that is unlikely to generate much better gross domestic product growth, a period of lower returns probably lies ahead. We recommend looking beyond index-driven rallies to focus on quality companies that can deliver growth as the economy moderates and trade at reasonable valuations.
BCA Research
We now see the classic soft-landing outcome that investors have been betting on (higher stock prices and lower bond yields) as very unlikely to occur. At the same time, Trump’s election does increase the odds of a bullish outcome for stocks in 2025, albeit with higher government bond yields.
Bel Air Investment Advisors
We expect the bull market in global equities will likely continue in 2025, with the US again likely to outperform the rest of the world. US companies generate stronger ROEs and earnings growth across industries and sectors, explaining dominant outperformance of US equities.
BlackRock Investment Institute
We are staying pro-risk. We see the US still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger growth and its ability to better capitalize on mega forces. We up our overweight to US equities and see the AI theme broadening out.
BNP Paribas
In our central case, US growth settles into a soft landing in early 2025 before idling into 2026 as the impacts of import tariffs and immigration policies outweigh more pro-growth initiatives.
BNP Paribas Asset Management
Developed market central banks are cutting policy rates. This should boost both equities – as shorter-term financing costs fall – and fixed income, as the policy rate component of bond yields declines. Of course, anticipating the reaction of markets is not as simple as that because the other, arguably more important, factor driving asset prices is economic growth. Investors should initially be circumspect in anticipating positive equity returns during a rate-cutting cycle given that four out of the last five such cycles in the US coincided with a recession.
BNY
In 2025, the combination of the Fed’s continued easing, US economic strength and the potential boost from pro-growth policies under the new administration will bring the runway for moderate growth into sight. Lower short-term interest rates will reduce borrowing costs for many consumers and businesses, helping to bolster consumer spending and economic activity. This backdrop should present attractive opportunities across asset classes for investors.
Capital Economics
Warnings about a spiral into a global trade war next year are overdone. We expect the world economy to grow by around 3% in 2025, similar to the rate of growth this year. This would be comparatively weak by past standards but would not be a disaster in the circumstances. Notably, it is unlikely to be so weak that “risky” assets are prevented from making further gains.
Capital Group
The world’s major economies look to be headed down divergent paths in 2025, and America’s role as the chief driver of global growth figures could expand even further. The Fed’s rate cutting cycle could be a powerful tailwind for investors in what is shaping up to be a healthy environment for both stock and bond markets.
Carmignac
We anticipate the US to outperform at the beginning of the year (given the Trump 2.0 effect on consumer confidence and spending, and companies with the highest effective tax rates). However, inflation concerns and a steeper yield curve, down the line, could lead investors to question the truly exceptional US equity valuations.
Charles Schwab
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
Citi
Excluding the United States, the global economy is projected to grow at a 2.7% pace during the coming year. For the US, we are watching developments closely but are broadly encouraged. We stick to the risk-on stance into year-end with a US exceptionalism flavor, but expect to pare back equity risk in the first quarter.
Columbia Threadneedle
For equities to continue their exceptional performance we would need geopolitical risks to stabilize; growth, but not too much; steady but low inflation so rates can come down … a lot has to go right. So although we expect gains, we wouldn’t expect a continuation of the 20%-25% growth in the US stock market.
Deutsche Bank
Our base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflation and a higher Fed terminal rate than previously expected with the opposite conditions for Europe. This is driven by the assumption of modest US tax cuts, a strong deregulation push, and more supportive financial conditions.
DWS
We expect 2025 to be a good year for investors overall, as inflation eases, growth returns to normal and central bank interest rate cuts help many asset classes. However, stock valuations leave little room for negative surprises and, after the US presidential election, we should expect the year to be anything but predictable.
Evercore ISI
The potential for exceptionally positive policy and geopolitical outcomes as well as for increases in tension and frictions set the table for a rollercoaster, yet ultimately bullish continuation of the past two years’ “Roaring 20%’s” rally in 2025.
Fidelity
We are mid- to late-cycle, and not end-of-cycle, creating a volatile environment that should generally be good for risk assets but puts a premium on getting investment choices right. Valuations of a number of past winners are elevated, but the mood in general is positive.
ABN AMRO Investment Solutions
First Abu Dhabi Bank
If the threatened trade war does not escalate further, the more positive derivatives from tax cuts, a friendlier regulatory environment, and improved pro-business attitudes should create a positive environment for risk asset performance as the year evolves and as we look further ahead to 2026.
Franklin Templeton
Globally, positive fundamentals for growth, inflation and interest rates, as well as the absence of significant imbalances or credit misallocation, offer favorable preconditions for positive returns across most asset classes and regions.
Global X
Global X believes economic growth is likely to surprise on the upside in 2025. Struggling sectors like manufacturing, paired with renewed small- and mid-cap corporate investment, could extend the mid-cycle expansion, translating to better market breadth with higher multiples. That said, interest rate volatility, which tends to rise in protectionist periods with considerable tariffs, is a potential risk to that outlook.
Goldman Sachs
Despite heightened tension between our baseline macro forecasts and high valuations and markets that have moved to reflect the better US growth picture, we still forecast modest positive returns across the key asset classes. The challenge is that tail risks are greater than before, and the new administration’s policy agenda creates a wider distribution of potential outcomes.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management
We expect rate cuts to progress in 2025 across most developed and emerging markets with divergence in their pace and timing. We remain optimistic that major economies can achieve sustained economic growth as interest rates ease, although the range of potential macroeconomic outcomes has widened following the US elections.
HSBC Asset Management
Our baseline scenario assumes moderate global growth with lingering inflation concerns translating to subdued rate cuts from central banks. This would coincide with modest trade policy changes and geopolitical disruption. Markets might maintain stability, with steady growth across emerging and developed markets.
HSBC Global Private Banking
A positive cyclical course has been set, and attractive structural trends are in place. The increased clarity will be reassuring for investors, we believe, supporting investment flows and asset returns.
Invesco
US assets usually perform well in the year after an election. Hence, given that we expect less inflation, easing central banks and more growth, we think 2025 should be a good year for financial markets. However, we embrace risk cautiously after strong price gains in 2024.
Janus Henderson
The combination of rate cuts and other potential accommodative policy in the US and stimulus in China should lend support to the global economy. Still, there are forces at play that make it imperative to apply caution when adding risk. Broadly speaking, markets have been quick to price in the cycle’s extension, leaving valuations vulnerable to downgrades if risks increase.
JPMorgan Asset Management
Policy forecasts at this stage are still highly speculative, but they don’t seem to spell disaster for the economy or markets in the short run. The economy remains on stable footing as we enter the new year, with a gradual return to normal across many fronts. However, investors should remain vigilant, considering the fragility of the economic expansion that underpins a bullish fervor in markets.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
We are positive on US risky assets in a world where US exceptionalism gets reinforced, amidst a prolonged business cycle with ongoing easing from central banks and with additional support coming from Fed ending QT in the first quarter.
JPMorgan Wealth Management
In 2025, the balance between tailwinds (continued global economic expansion, falling interest rates, healthy earnings growth) and headwinds (elevated valuations, especially in US large-cap stocks, tight spreads in investment-grade and high-yield bonds, increased macroeconomic volatility and ongoing geopolitical risks) suggest that portfolio returns are likely to outpace cash but also revert to trend-like rates. We suggest that investors consider maintaining balanced positioning between offense and defense, stocks and bonds, and income and capital appreciation.
Lombard Odier
For 2025, the world will be shaken up amid more adversarial US trade policies. While US tariffs will be inflationary at home, overseas their biggest impact will be to reduce growth, and this could push authorities in China and Europe into more radical policy responses.
LPL Financial
We remain cautiously optimistic. Cautious because we know that no market environment is ever permanent, and that change is always potentially around the corner. Optimistic because we recognize constructive long-term technology trends are in place. Plus, potential tax policy and deregulation efforts in 2025 could provide some semblance of a tailwind — particularly from an economic perspective. While growth asset returns are not expected to be as robust as 2024, 2025’s investment environment should prove to be favorable for investors.
Macquarie
With fiscal policy likely to turn more accommodative in both China and the US, we expect growth to remain solid over the first half of 2025, as manufacturing finally begins to recover. That should see equities continue to rally into 2025, and commodities supported.
Morgan Stanley
A global economy with moderate growth, disinflation and monetary easing should encourage investors to look to equities and other risk assets.
NatWest
We are bullish as we enter 2025. Our short-term focus will be on continued moderate economic growth, rising wages and falling global interest rates which should all be good for corporate earnings.
Ned Davis Research
The skies appear mostly clear for the financial markets heading into 2025. The Fed’s easing cycle is ongoing amid disinflation and low recession risks, earnings growth is solid, and the rally is broadening. Against that backdrop, we enter the year bullish on US stocks on an absolute basis and relative to bonds and cash, favor cyclical over defensive sectors, and are focused on crypto, software AI, and durable goods themes.
Neuberger Berman
A year of above-trend growth. While the politics may change, industrial policy aimed at influencing domestic production patterns will continue, whether achieved via government spending and investment, tax policy, trade policy, deregulation or other means. If inflation can be contained — and we think it can — central banks can stand aside and allow economies to run a little warm. That is a recipe for above-trend US GDP growth, which could drag some of the world’s other economies with it.
Northern Trust Asset Management
Northern Trust Asset Management’s base case economic outlook for 2025 is a US soft landing. NTAM expects economic growth to settle slightly below 2024 levels, inflation to ease further toward 2% and the Federal Reserve to proceed gradually cutting rates.
Nuveen
The economy is experiencing a different kind of landing that defies easy categorization. It’s one in which inflation and monetary policy rates settle but stay structurally higher than they were pre-Covid. And while this landing may lack a label, it’s replete with opportunity for investors willing to adjust their portfolio itineraries.
Pictet Asset Management
Given the importance of the US for global growth and weakness in Europe and China, we expect global growth to remain stable at some 2.8% in 2025, broadly its trend rate – assuming our base case for Trump’s policies. Resilient growth and falling interest rates should help equities outperform bonds next year, with US in the lead.
Pimco
The factors that supported relative US economic strength are diminishing. That suggests some recoupling with the rest of the world and further progress on curbing inflation.
Principal Asset Management
We approach the year with optimism for equities, credit, and risk assets. While our risk appetite has diminished from the past several years, we retain a slight equity overweight and see a path to a rewarding 2025.
Robeco
In our view, 2025 will be another year of a treacherous macro climate with many idiosyncratic cross winds. By occasionally signaling some economic weakness, the data will blur broader economic resilience. Our stance remains: ceci n’est pas un landing.
Russell Investments
We expect that the US will achieve a soft-landing in 2025, with the economy growing at a trend-like pace of 2%. Outside the US, we think growth will likely remain under pressure, with trade-policy uncertainty and tariffs weighing on Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
Schroders
Leaving aside political risks, the economic backdrop remains benign. Inflation has moved in the right direction and interest rates are falling in the US and Europe. We expect a soft landing, and our expectation is that growth will reaccelerate as we move through 2025.
Societe Generale
In 2025, we believe the world we will live in will increasingly resemble a story with four new chapters: new US policy, China’s reflation plans, the unwinding of the yen carry trade and an end to the German debt-brake rule. Three of these are “risk-on.”
State Street
State Street Global Advisors expects rate cuts and macroeconomic resilience to continue in 2025, and its long-standing forecast of a US soft landing to materialize. While there are a range of uncertainties to contend with, investors may want to consider above target allocations to equities and should remain thoughtful about portfolio construction.
T. Rowe Price
There is strong potential for a slowdown in global growth in early 2025. But central banks are poised to respond with rapid rate cuts, paving the way for a fast recovery. We expect a shift from services to manufacturing — the result of a global push towards renewable energy and the rise of AI. These factors are, in part, fueling infrastructure spending.
Tallbacken Capital
The economy remains in the midst of a key structural shift to a higher nominal GDP environment, where real and nominal rates will find a higher floor. Against this backdrop, the dollar and US centric risk assets will be supported, longer dated Treasuries less so. However, next year also comes with some sense of a US political risk premium.
TD Securities
As we look into 2025, we see a world of heightened uncertainty and greater regional divergence.
Truist Wealth
We stay anchored and aligned with the primary market uptrend as opportunities remain. Yet investors will need to navigate a delicate landscape. We balance optimism about the ongoing economic expansion and the likelihood of further stock market gains with a keen awareness of potential disruptions.
UBS
US growth is supported by deregulation and improved business confidence, more than offsetting the impact of selective tariffs on Chinese and key European imports. Trade and geopolitical negotiations add to volatility for European and Chinese markets. The most expansionary US fiscal plans are shelved and inflation falls toward target. US equities rise. Bond yields fall slightly and central banks consistently cut interest rates toward neutral.
UniCredit
Our outlook for 2025 is marked by cautious optimism: a macro environment characterized by lower interest rates and positive economic growth will support risk appetite, as the tightening cycle has replenished central banks’ toolboxes, creating room for bold action if needed. This is good news for equity and bond returns in 2025, but it will not necessarily translate into an all-clear for global markets.
Vanguard
Positive supply-side drivers of growth may continue in 2025, emerging policy risks such as the implementation of trade tariffs and stricter immigration policies may offset gains. Under such a scenario, US real GDP growth would cool from its present rate of around 3% to closer to 2%.
Wells Fargo
Increased probability of global recession with potential tariffs and trade war becoming more likely. The most concerning effect of tariffs is on growth, not necessarily inflation.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
We think the global economic recovery will be strongest in the US, because of structural advantages — such as stronger fiscal stimulus, a vibrant technology sector, and less dependence on exports — compared with emerging markets and other developed markets. An economic rebound, reinforced by lower short-term interest rates, should promote broader earnings growth and higher equity prices through year-end 2025.