Amundi Investment Institute
We are balancing our mildly pro-risk stance for 2025 with inflation-resilient assets such as cyclical base metals and infrastructure.
Amundi Investment Institute
We see more frequent volatility spikes in oil markets in 2025, but supply should remain the driving force. Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept lower prices to restore OPEC credibility and regain market share, and growing non-OPEC output, both point to a weaker price equilibrium, in the low range of our $75 to $80 Brent target.
Bank of America
BofA expects commodity prices to ultimately rise in 2025; base and precious metal prices forecast to jump (copper up 17%, gold to $3,000 per ounce); but oil prices to buck trend (Brent to average $65 per barrel, down 20% from 2024).
BCA Research
We are long the dollar, and are negative toward energy and industrial metals within the commodity complex. We are likely to remain overweight gold until we see significant evidence that central bank purchases are likely to wane. Investors should buy gold on dips.
BNP Paribas
Bearish pressures are likely to develop on crude oil prices in the second half, as tariffs sap demand growth.
BNP Paribas
A stronger dollar and an on-hold Fed will keep a lid on gold prices into the second half, in our view, after hitting new highs in early 2025.
BNP Paribas Asset Management
We would anticipate ongoing support for gold prices as investors look for alternative safe haven assets.
Citi
We forecast that oil prices will gradually decline to $60 per barrel by mid-2025 and remain around that level.
Citi
We remain long precious metals despite the large run-up, largely because under Trump, central banks of countries that fear they could be targeted by sanctions will be even more incentivized to diversify away from the dollar. Gold is one of the few options available to them.
Citi
The looming tariffs mean that base metals may not trade all that well, despite signs that the global manufacturing PMI has turned higher, which is usually supportive. We are tempted to buy a tariff driven pullback.
DWS
We do not expect gold to rally as it did in 2024, but we expect it will still achieve a decent gain. In any case, we believe that the precious metal is likely to serve as a good hedge in a challenging year 2025.
Goldman Sachs
In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85 per barrel range. Including the roll return, this means that energy and our broader commodity indexes should offer modest positive returns in the central case. But we think the risks of breaking outside those ranges are growing.
HSBC Global Private Banking
In a context of higher US debt from fiscal expansion policies, potential higher inflation, and global uncertainties, we see gold edging even higher in the coming months.
Invesco
Dollar will weaken as Fed loosens. Commodities will be supported by accelerating global economy and dollar weakness.
Invesco
Our optimisation process unambiguously favors bank loans, investment grade credit and commodities, while gold and equities are out of favor. When faced with difficult choices, we are now erring on the riskier side (given our view that economies will accelerate).
Jefferies
We see 2025 as challenging for the oil sector. However, we see the macro picture as positive for metals, in particular copper and gold.
Jefferies
On balance, we expect (and hope) for 2025 to be a better year on geopolitical front than the last couple of years. Whether Trump Presidency could engineer a deal between Ukraine and Russia remains to be seen. It would have significant implications on commodity prices and the growth outlook for Europe.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In commodities, weak oil supply-demand fundamentals will likely bring down oil prices, with further support form Trump’s energy agenda. We remain bearish also on base metals on further pricing of China tariff risk. Keep a longterm bullish outlook on gold.
JPMorgan Wealth Management
Over the long run, we believe the negative stock-bond correlation will hold. But we see a strong argument for owning assets that can provide diversification to both equities and fixed income. What fits the bill? Historically, real estate, commodities and infrastructure have exhibited low correlations to stocks and bonds. At the same time, diversified hedge fund strategies have proved their worth in the post-COVID period.
JPMorgan Wealth Management
Critically, gold – the original safe-haven asset – can serve as an attractive hedge against both geopolitical risk and uncertainty around sovereign debt and deficits. We also believe the US dollar is structurally overvalued. Gold is an efficient way to diversify currency exposure.
Lombard Odier
Following new US trade and energy policies, 2025 will likely be a year of US dollar strength and lower oil prices. We expect gold to perform well on haven demand and structural buying from central banks, but returns are unlikely to be comparable to 2024. Industrial metals should be supported by positive economic growth.
LPL Financial
Demand for a broad assembly of commodities will be crucial for new infrastructure projects globally, and continued renovation of aging infrastructure. The buildout of data centers is poised to require an abundance of commodities. For investors, commodity exposure should remain a small portion of a portfolio that’s diversified across the commodity complex. In addition, investors should consider infrastructure opportunities.
Macquarie
At core, we continue to anticipate a heavily oversupplied oil market in 2025, even assuming a continuation of subdued Saudi Arabian supply. Yet, we see room for pronounced volatility. we are modestly increasing our full-year outlook, with WTI averaging about $66 per barrel, up from about $65.
Ned Davis Research
We are currently bullish gold. We are neutral on the US dollar, euro, yen and the UK pound.
Pictet Asset Management
Gold continues to offer a useful hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks and any unforeseen shocks from the Trump presidency. After a recent correction, the precious metal has already started trending higher and it is likely to attract safe-haven flows.
Schroders
To the extent that investors are seeking diversifiers, we continue to like gold as it provides a hedge against recession risks like bonds. It is also a good store of value in the event of more stagflationary outcomes and geopolitical events.
Schroders
Commodities have been out of favour due to global growth worries, but they have an important role to play in offering diversification and creating resilient portfolios. Energy is one way to play this, while gold is still the ultimate safe haven asset.
Societe Generale
US energy policy should ensure that oil remains abundant. This comes at a time when Saudi Arabia is running massive excess capacity and demand growth remainsdisappointing. Based on this, we expect the oil price to continue to trend downwards, leaving room to offset some of the potential concerns from inflation prints, despite Trump’s policies — and only allowing most central banks to keep a moderate loosening bias, preventing a sharp steepening.
Societe Generale
Central banks increasing their gold reserves is another long-term trend we would highlight. Apart from a heavy gold holding at 7% (unchanged) as protection against intensifying global geopolitical tensions, we have otherwise zero exposure to commodities.
TD Securities
Given the change in the interest rate trajectory, a firm dollar and a slower uptake of physical metal by central banks and coin and bar investors, the gold market may very well be ready to consolidate recent gains.
UBS
Lower interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and US government debt concerns should continue to support gold in 2025. There are also long-term opportunities in copper and in other transition metals as demand rises alongside rising investment in power generation, storage, and electric transport.
UniCredit
Barring any escalation in geopolitical tensions or sudden spikes in inflation, gold may face limited upside in the near future.
UniCredit
If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not escalate into a broader regional conflict, we expect OPEC+ to seek to stabilise the Brent price at around $75 per barrel.
UniCredit
Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to sustain demand for precious metals, while industrial metals will await better economic-growth prospects.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
In our view, commodities are well-positioned to benefit from a rebound in global demand, driven by a modest international economic recovery and lower global interest rates. We favor holding a basket of commodities to gain exposure to the reacceleration of the commodity bull super-cycle.