Allspring Global Investments
The relative payoff has been growing for emerging-market investing, and we expect this trend to continue.
Amundi Investment Institute
EMs are expected to outperform DMs. India and Indonesia are long-term winners. In the short term, China may benefit from additional stimulus.
Apollo Global Management
Ongoing worries about the future long-term success of traditional allocation strategies (i.e. 60% stocks/40% bonds) are unlikely to dissipate. We see potential for depressed long-run returns in the public markets (both equity and bonds). Parts of the 60/40 portfolio invested in public markets can be replaced with private fixed income and private equity.
BlackRock Investment Institute
We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook.
Carmignac
We see opportunities in countries such as Japan (where the strengthening currency and the tightening of monetary policy should be well perceived by both the president elect and global investors) and India (which enjoys positive long-term growth and a recent softening of equity valuations).
Carmignac
We see opportunities in special-situation countries which have already had to battle with bond vigilantes and where significant reforms and turnaround policies are having an impact. Countries such as Argentina (where inflation is moving from triple to double digits), Turkey (where real yields are finally turning into positive territory), or Ecuador (where the combination of reforms and support from international institutions is beneficial).
Citi
Emerging markets are neutral; China’s policy shift could propel further gains, though Trump administration risks are particularly acute.
Evercore ISI
Recent dollar strength has weighed on relative performance in Europe following Trump’s re-election. A moderation from near all-time dollar highs set in 2022 could ease headwinds. Moderating geopolitical tensions as well as a China recovery would bolster support as well.
Franklin Templeton
The re-election of President Donald Trump, accompanied by a Republican “clean sweep,” should provide markets with strong support into 2025. We believe earnings-friendly tax cuts and deregulation, accompanied by supportive macroeconomic fundamentals, should set the stage for solid returns.
Franklin Templeton
While investors ought to seek higher returns in US equities, global equity themes, short duration credit, and (where possible) in private markets/alternatives, they must also build in resistance against potentially higher volatility. We believe the appropriate approach relies on sound portfolio construction, blending uncorrelated returns across asset classes, styles, and securities.
HSBC Asset Management
Emerging markets, in particular, present compelling opportunities for diversification. Many of these markets remain undervalued and under-owned by international investors, meaning that any positive developments can lead to strong market reactions. However, we must remain selective, as risks associated with a stronger US dollar, rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties could impact market sentiment.
HSBC Global Private Banking
We maintain our mild overweight on global equities, while continuing to build our allocation to alternative assets. We believe equities will outperform bonds, and bonds will outperform cash. Sitting on excess cash is likely to once again be a drag on performance.
Invesco
Despite the constructive economic and policy backdrop, our projected returns are lower than a year ago because of the intervening sharp rise in some asset prices.
Invesco
We boost allocations to investment grade, REITS and commodities (all overweight) and high yield (remaining underweight), while reducing cash (to zero) and government bonds (to neutral). Bank loans remain our favorite asset class (from a risk-reward basis) and we remain underweight equities.
Invesco
From a regional perspective we prefer European and emerging market assets. We also seek exposure to an appreciating yen, which we do partly by maintaining the partial hedge out of dollar into yen.
Jefferies
We are constructive on EM for 2025 despite the uncertainty over tariff policies. However, there will be increased differentiation across geographies. Asia ex China remains our favourite play with India being the top pick.
JPMorgan Asset Management
While China’s path ahead may be bumpy and involve trade conflicts with the US, opportunities in EM ex-China remain promising. India is expected to maintain strong earnings momentum due to falling rates and robust services export growth.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
From a positioning point of view the most vulnerable asset classes are equities, the dollar and bitcoin and the least vulnerable are non-gold commodities. The elevated equity positioning calls for the careful consideration of equity tail hedges (such as put ratios), especially given that post Trump’s election victory volatility and skew have normalized.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
In a resilient macro outlook with the Fed unable to deliver a complete cutting cycle, we are cautious across EM, leaving aside the additional risk potentially coming from tariff shock.
JPMorgan Wealth Management
To protect the recent surge in household wealth and manage increased macroeconomic volatility, clients need resilient portfolios. Three approaches – relying more on income, adding assets that may help mitigate the threat of inflation, and using options and derivatives strategies to shift risk and reward profiles – can help portfolios withstand unexpected shocks.
Ned Davis Research
For global asset allocation, NDR recommends an overweight allocation to stocks, market-weight allocation to cash, and an underweight allocation to bonds.
Ned Davis Research
We are overweight the US, Canada, and Pacific ex-Japan; underweight emerging markets, the UK, and Japan; and makeweight Europe ex. UK.
Ned Davis Research
Our US asset allocation recommendation is 70% stocks (15% overweight), 25% bonds (10% underweight), and 5% cash (5% underweight). On an absolute basis, we are overweight the S&P 500 (year-end 2025 target of 6,600). We are neutral on small-caps versus large-caps (implicit overweight to midcaps) and neutral on growth versus value.
Principal Asset Management
Barring a recession, US equities could very well produce a +10% gain, and core US fixed income could return +5-7% in 2025, with a slight decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. Credit spreads, while narrow, should continue to hold income appeal and remain durable. A globally diversified multi-asset strategy will likely have less return in 2025 than in 2024, but we still expect a solid year. Across our multi-asset portfolios, we’re positioned for increased volatility.